What we thought then and what we think now: Scoot Henderson

If NBA Draft history teaches us anything definitively, it is that history does not look favorably upon those organizations that prioritize fit at the top of the draft.

In retrospect, the fact that Golden State already had Steph Curry and Klay Thompson is no excuse for them taking James Wiseman over LaMelo Ball.

Just like Sacramento's decision to take Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic and Trae Young is no less crushing because they already had a young backcourt of Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox at the time.

The reason that lesson is particularly relevant heading into the 2023 draft is because Charlotte, who has the second overall pick, is now widely presumed to be favoring Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson, in large part because they already have LaMelo Ball (irony is think) at the point.

Now, let's ignore the question of whether Ball and Henderson would be as incompatible as many are assuming for the time being, and instead recognize that the fit won't matter down the road if Henderson goes on to have a notably better career than Miller.

In order to determine the likelihood of that, this week's editions of ‘What we thought then and what we think now’ will trace the evaluation, and thus ideally help project the future, of the two players in contention for the second overall pick, beginning with Henderson.

Henderson was just a junior in high school when he committed to joining the NBA's G League Ignite program in May of 2021. He was the first player to do so as a junior and thus the first player to sign a multi-year contract, although he ended up finishing high school that year.

Henderson was a consensus five-star prospect at the time, but hardly viewed as elite a prospect as he now is two years later, ranking 12th overall in the 247Sports Composite prior to his reclassification.

Of course, in May of 2021, it had been almost two years since any of the sneaker circuits had operated because of the pandemic, and the evaluation opportunities were nowhere near as effective.

Nevertheless, national recruiting analyst Travis Branham recalled getting the chance to see Scoot early in his career on a recent episode of College Basketball Recruiting Weekly:

"Elite prospect. That was the thing that always jumped out, every time you saw him, he just oozed with upside and talent. The biggest thing with him in high school, honestly, was his motor. During that covid time, I still went down to Atlanta and watched him. There were a lot of times you wanted a lot more out of him, but when that motor clicked on, there wasn't anybody, especially at that position, better than him in that 2022 class which he was originally in, and even in that 2021 class that he ended up in. [Defenders] couldn't keep him in front. [He was] explosive, elite first step. Other areas of improvement were his jump shot, and that's something that I think we’ve seen him improve since being with the G League Ignite. Also, I think part of it with the motor, was I think he was a little bit bored, because the motor has not really been a concern with Ignite. He brings it every single night, on both ends of the court. I remember seeing him go against the number one 2021 point guard in Atlanta one time, and absolutely shut him down. He had immense potential and immense upside and he's tapped into it."

Henderson is every bit as dynamic as advertised athletically. He's an explosive leaper who rises up with force, has elite speed with the ball, the ability to hit the gas mid-drive and go from fast to faster, a very strong frame, long arms with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, and functionally big hands with the way he can palm the ball mid-possession. More subtle, but no less important, he plays with terrific economy of motion in the open floor, getting the ball out in front of him and utilizing long strides. He's also instinctive and creative with how he attacks, both in transition and with his ability to navigate a crowded lane, and can improvise on demand. In the half-court, his burst and first-step are so good that, while he has a quality handle, he rarely has to play with the ball too much in isolations and can often just blow by his man to either side.

While his physical prowess gets a lot of attention, and rightly so, perhaps the most underrated part of his game and long-term potential is his floor vision and passing ability, or perhaps more accurately – the overlap of his dynamic athleticism, floor vision, and passing ability. He already has a knack for playing pick-and-roll, makes many of the reads look easy when he's playing in the type of spacing he should see at the next level, and even maintains his vision when utilizing his ability to navigate traffic. He also doesn't get caught in first gear near as often as someone so young and explosive typically would, slowing himself down without difficulty.

Also on the plus side: he's very comfortable with his pull-up; has deep range and soft touch on his runner; shows flashes of cutting well off the ball; and an ability to be a lay-up maker when he's unable to make some of his above-the-rim highlight finishes.

The biggest areas of concern are his shooting and defense. He's almost too content to settle for his pull-up at this point, and could better leverage his physical gifts to put more consistent pressure on the rim and draw fouls. While he's reasonably effective at hitting a statistically inefficient mid-range shot, you see the first sign of mechanical issues that become more pronounced as he extends away from the basket, as he can often have balance issues on the way up (despite his ability to stop on a dime), scissor kicking his legs, and sometimes driving his shoulders back. From behind the arc, he's built-up a good amount of glaringly bad misses in his tape over the last two years and the bottom line is that there's very little doubt every opposing defense he sees in the NBA will be going under ball-screens and daring him to make shots until he makes them pay for it.

Henderson is credited with being competitive and a worker. So given his athleticism and length, it stands to reason he should be an impactful defender, even if he's not super switchable by NBA standards, but that hasn't necessarily been the case yet. He rarely pressures the ball like he shoulder be able to, and like with his shooting, there have been some glaringly bad moments. He has shown a surprising lack of fight at times (whether that be in the open floor or when switched onto bigger players) and has really struggled to handle ball-screens, as well as some weakside rotations, at other times.

The physical gifts, creativity of his playmaking, and ability to combine that with his passing at just 19 years old makes him one of the best point guard prospects we’ve seen in recent years. But the lack of progression in his shooting is a concern, as too is the fact that he's a bit of an underachiever on the defensive end of the floor.

What is talked about less, but will likely be explored by teams like Charlotte is this – if he is truly as competitive as advertised, why was his motor inconsistent in high school, and why are there clear moments where he lacks fight defensively now?

Because to truly maximize his undeniable potential, he not only has to improve his shooting and defense, but he needs to always maintain that killer instinct.